Hydrogen will play a key role in decarbonising sectors where electrification is not possible, with total demand growing from 115mn t/yr today to 800mn t/yr by 2050, according to thinktank the Energy Transition Commission (ETC).

This would mean that—in a scenario where the world has reached net-zero emissions by 2050— hydrogen could account for 15-20pc of total energy demand on top of the 70pc to be met by direct electrification.

“Green hydrogen best complement to electrification” Delgado, Iberdrola

The vast majority of today’s hydrogen production comes from natural gas and coal, and therefore new production methods for green hydrogen will need to be simultaneously prioritised.

“Green hydrogen made from renewable electricity will be the best complement to deep electrification to achieve a sustainable and decarbonised energy sector,” says Agustin Delgado, chief sustainability officer for Iberdrola, one of the members of the ETC.

Clean hydrogen

Strategies for net-zero emissions by 2050 must therefore recognise the major role of clean hydrogen and the implications for electricity supply, according to a new report titled Making the Hydrogen Economy Possible.

The required levels of green hydrogen production will increasing global electricity demand by as much as 30,000TWh by 2050, the report says.

National strategies must ensure a sufficiently rapid take-off during the 2020s to make the transition to 2050 feasible.

This requires policy support to narrow the premium for green and blue hydrogen over grey, including carbon-pricing schemes, focused support in specific end use sectors, and the development of green hydrogen ‘valleys’ or ‘clusters’.

The uses of hydrogen in a zero-carbon economy can be divided into four groups: 

• Existing uses where green hydrogen should replace grey as quickly as possible, eliminating the 830mn t/yr of CO₂ currently being released in the fuel’s production.
• Long-term applications where hydrogen will grow slowly as the relevant technology—including steel production, long-distance shipping as ammonia, and seasonal storage within power grids.
• Potential short-term but transitional opportunities which may enable partial emissions reductions, such as co-firing hydrogen with natural gas in power production, and co-firing with coal in steel blast furnaces.
• Possible uses where the relative advantages of hydrogen are still unclear, including heavy-duty road transport, residential heating, and plastics production.

Blue hydrogen will often be cost-effective during the early stages of the transition, particularly where existing grey hydrogen production can be adapted and retrofitted with carbon capture and storage.

But, in the long-term, green hydrogen will very likely be the cheaper option in most locations, with cost reductions to below $2/kg possible during the 2020s. Green hydrogen production costs currently vary from $2.6-4.5/kg, blue hydrogen from $1.3-2.9/kg and grey hydrogen from $0.7-2.2/kg.

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Author: Tom Young