Green hydrogen is already on track to achieve costs of $2-3/kg in Latin America and Africa, according to risk management company DNV.

“DNV is involved in some projects in Latin America and Africa where we already see the potential for green hydrogen production costs in the range of $2-3/kg using solar PV,” the company says in its Financing the Energy Transition report.

Green hydrogen cost forecasts vary greatly. The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) says costs could fall to “well below” $2/kg by 2030. Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that clean hydrogen will cost below $2/kg in much of the developed world by 2030. And a US goal to produce green hydrogen at $1/kg is feasible, according to Wood Mackenzie.

1.9pc – Hydrogen share of energy carriers in 2040

DNV expects global green hydrogen production to ramp up from 2035 and outpace the growth of blue hydrogen in the 2040s. It forecasts an 80-20 split between green and blue hydrogen by 2050.

“The costs of electrolysers and renewable energy are expected to fall over the next decade, making green hydrogen more viable,” DNV says.

Alkaline Electrolysis (AE) and Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysers remain the most developed hydrogen production technologies. But Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) technology are also expected to play a role.

“SOE will likely be applied in combination with a stable power supply, integrated with other processes in ammonia and synthetic fuel production, and possibly in reverse operation to convert hydrogen back into electricity,” DNV says.

Hydrogen will account for 1.9pc of all energy carriers in 2040, rising to 5pc in 2050. DNV expects this growth will continue into the second half of the century, with uptake initially coming from the manufacturing and transport sectors.

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Author: Stuart Penson