Global hydrogen demand scenarios from different organisations vary greatly, with the lowest modelling showing 77mn t/yr of demand by 2030 and the highest showing 212mn t/yr by the same year.

Current global hydrogen demand is a little over 75mn t/yr. The varying scenarios are the results of different levels of policy action being modelled, with the least ambitious being consultancy’s Acil Allen’s ‘low scenario’ and the most ambitious being the IEA’s ‘net zero scenario’.

The Acil Allen ‘low scenario’ sees the world missing the goals of the Paris Agreement, with a 50pc chance of limiting the peak in global temperatures to between 2°C and 4°C. The IEA’s net-zero scenario sees a 50pc chance of limiting temperatures rise this century to 1.5°C.

“Only after 2030 will hydrogen be economically viable” Hoof, PwC

Signatories to the Paris Agreement agreed to limit temperatures rises to 2°C this century with a further ambition of 1.5°C if possible.

The discrepancies grow even wider in modelling out to 2050, where Acil Allen’s ‘low’ scenario sees just 148mn t/yr of demand and analysis firm’s BloombergNEF’s Hydrogen Economy Outlook’s ‘strong policy’ scenario over four times this level, at 696mn t/yr.

Of the 14 demand outlooks collected and published alongside each other in the latest Innovation Insights Briefing from the World Energy Council (WEC), the demand average is 105mn t/yr for 2030, 175mn t/yr for 2040 and 341mn t/yr for 2050.

All scenarios see demand in the transport and industry sectors, with the more ambitious models seeing a further demand pull from the building and power sectors, where the fuel could be used for heating and storage respectively. 

“By 2050, the estimates vary significantly between an equivalent of 5pc to 20pc of total final energy consumption dependent on underlying assumptions,” says the WEC.

Scaling challenge

The variety in the modelling is due to the significant challenges in scaling up hydrogen—and whether they can be overcome.

The key uncertainties revolve around the degree of funding and policy support, solving the ‘chicken and egg’ problem of creating demand when there is low supply, and the rate of technology development.

“Only after 2030 will [hydrogen] be economically viable,” says Jeroen Van Hoof, global energy, utilities and resources leader for professional services firm PwC, who helped author the report.

“Things will need to be done to get there - investing in the existing infrastructure and getting pilot projects off the ground. If that happens I am convinced hydrogen will play a very significant role in the decarbonisation of all these sectors.”

---

Author: Tom Young