World hydrogen demand is expected to increase to 24EJ/yr by 2050, with the road transport and maritime sectors accounting for nearly half of that demand, according to a new report from consultancy DNV.

DNV’s figure is at the top end of demand scenarios foreseen by other reports. In comparison, the strong policy scenario in research firm BloombergNEF’s Hydrogen Economy Outlook foresees 27 EJ/yr (696mn t/yr) of demand by 2050, putting it at the top of the range of eight reports evaluated by the World Energy Council, a network of energy leaders and practitioners.

Hydrogen demand growth is hard to predict as the industry is relatively small and its expansion is predicated on unknowns such as technology development, cost reductions and government policies.

“Our research shows that hydrogen producers are investing and upscaling to generate vast amounts of green and blue hydrogen in the coming years” DNV

But DNV research shows several industries are building the demand-side of the hydrogen economy at a rate faster than foreseen by other scenarios.

“Our research shows that hydrogen producers are investing and upscaling to generate vast amounts of green and blue hydrogen in the coming years,” says the report, titled Rising to the Challenge of the Hydrogen Economy.

“They are confident enough to do so because several industries are simultaneously building the demand-side of the hydrogen economy.”

The steel industry alone could account for 1.5mn t/yr of demand if it were to completely switch from coal to hydrogen. But the industry would need guaranteed supply to come onstream before it started to convert its processes.

And infrastructure must also improve—respondents to DNV’s survey selected a lack of investment in hydrogen infrastructure (38pc) as the joint-highest risk their organisations face in relation to hydrogen, with cost being the other.

High confidence levels

However, there is a high level of confidence these hurdles will be overcome as long as existing assets are used wisely. Around 78pc of respondents believed repurposing existing gas infrastructure will be key to developing a large-scale hydrogen economy.

Nearly three-quarters (73pc) of respondents said Paris Agreement targets are not achievable without a large-scale hydrogen economy, and 74pc said there is no way to achieve a zero-carbon economy by 2050 without hydrogen.

“Hydrogen has had a few false dawns in the past, but there has never been anything like the current levels of investment, government support and industry commitment,” says the report.

DNV surveyed 1,123 respondents from 80 countries.

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Author: Tom Young