Geopolitics and civil strife could stymie green hydrogen initiatives in North Africa, despite the high potential for production in the region, according to a research note from consultancy Verisk Maplecroft titled Political risk to curb African green hydrogen.

High solar PV potential and the region’s proximity to demand centres in Europe make it the ideal candidate for green hydrogen production.

But taking green hydrogen in North Africa from isolated memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to production and exports at scale is unlikely without a regional strategy to meet future EU demand, the report concludes.

Political and economic realities across the subregion suggest that there are slim chances of it becoming a green hydrogen hub this decade

“Political and economic realities across the subregion suggest there are slim chances of it becoming a green hydrogen hub this decade,” says the note.

One large project has been announced in the region—in Mauritania. Africa-focused energy firm Chariot has signed an agreement to carry out a feasibility study to evaluate the possibility of producing green hydrogen from wind and solar resources spread over a 14,400km² as part of a 10GW green hydrogen project.

However, the project currently consists only of MoUs, and the nation has historically struggled to attract overseas investment.

Risk correlation

The Verisk analysis also finds that, elsewhere in North Africa, political risks are often highest in countries that have the best solar potential.

“Algeria and Morocco, for example, remain at loggerheads over Western Sahara, and closed a gas pipeline linking the two countries in October, the only substantive economic connection between the countries,” says the note.

“In Algeria itself, a poor regulatory environment alienates most businesses other than the oil and gas sector. An uncertain political outlook for Libya and Tunisia rules out most greenfield investment for now.”

Beyond Mauritania, this leaves Egypt and Morocco as the most viable investment destinations for green hydrogen projects in North Africa.

10GW – Size of proposed project in Mauritania

Egypt is formulating a green hydrogen strategy, while Morocco signed a MoU with Germany in June 2020 to develop its hydrogen sector. 

Morocco may end up trimming its ambitions, however, and use domestically produced hydrogen to produce green ammonia and fertiliser instead, the report says. 

Looking south

Elsewhere in Africa, the Namibian government has signed a deal with Hyphen Hydrogen Energy to develop a green hydrogen project in the country to produce 300,000t/yr of the fuel.

“This could enable the southern African region to become the out-and-out regional leader in green hydrogen production, especially given the comparatively more stable investment environment,” says the report, identifying Namibia as one of the few countries that may be able to become viable exporter on the continent.

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Author: Tom Young