It has been a long time since the old joke about hydrogen being the fuel of the future was even vaguely amusing. Hydrogen is very much here, as anyone who was ferried around the Japanese capital in one of Toyota’s fleet of fuel cell electric vehicles during the Tokyo Olympic Games can attest.

World leaders cannot stop enthusing about using the gas to combat climate change, with their hopes and dreams for hydrogen growing by the day. UK prime minister Boris Johnson says he wants to make his country the “Qatar of hydrogen” and the government hopes the fuel can supply up to 35pc of domestic energy needs by 2050. Germany, meanwhile, has announced some €8bn ($9.2bn) of funding support for 62 hydrogen projects as part of its plan to help decarbonise the economy, and China is not far behind, with 50 hydrogen projects worth more than RMB110bn ($17.2bn) already announced.

Where companies lead, governments will follow

But if governments are not careful to follow up on these pledges, they will reignite the hydrogen punchline. Of course, we all hope hydrogen is the solution, but hope will not solve the environmental problems caused by fossil fuels—it is time to look at what is actually happening. Plenty of action is underway, and we need to follow the money rather than the commitments for a flavour of the agenda in 2022.

For all that Toyota hopes to make its dream of fuel cell electric cars a reality—and for all the billions the Japanese automobile giant has invested in the technology since the early 1990s—hydrogen is not going to happen in that sector. Just look at all the battery charging points and electric cars already on the roads: the market has spoken.

Cars aside, the situation gets more interesting elsewhere in the corporate world. The Hydrogen Council, an industry consortium, says some 350 big projects are underway globally to develop clean hydrogen production, hydrogen distribution facilities and industrial plants that will use hydrogen for processes that now use fossil fuels. These span the globe—the bulk are in Europe, but the rest of the world is playing catch up fast. Cumulative public and private investment could reach $500bn between now and 2030.

Take the UK, where chemical giant Ineos announced in October what it claims to be the largest investment in green hydrogen production in Europe. The company is ploughing more than €2bn into electrolysis projects to make green hydrogen at several of its sites across Europe.

Ineos plans to build plants in Norway, Germany and Belgium over the next ten years, while also investing in plants in the UK and France. The Norwegian plant will have a 20MW electrolyser that will reduce the carbon footprint of Ineos’ petroleum and plastics complex at Rafnes, southwest of Oslo, by at least 22,000t/yr CO₂. While modest in scale, this is still an important step to demonstrate the enormous value of green hydrogen in an industrial context.

€2bn – Ineos planned investment in hydrogen projects

In Germany, a 100MW electrolyser project will decarbonise Ineos’ operations in Cologne by more than 120,000t/yr CO₂. Hydrogen from the Cologne site will be used to produce green ammonia, which Ineos hopes will open up opportunities to develop e-fuels through power-to-methanol applications on an industrial scale.

Across the Atlantic, CF Industries Holdings, the largest producer of ammonia in the US, has signed a contract with Thyssenkrupp for a 20MW green hydrogen project at its Louisiana factory. This will be the first commercial-scale green ammonia project in North America, according to Tony Will, CEO of CF Industries.

This is significant because most of the world’s industrial ammonia is grey—made from grey hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels. That is why processes using fossil-based, high-carbon hydrogen are among the first to transition and scale up.

Keep your eyes peeled on steel

In Sweden SSAB, the largest steel sheet manufacturer in Scandinavia, plans to deliver green steel on an industrial basis by 2026 and to become fossil free by 2045. This will not come cheap. Arcelormittal, Europe’s biggest steelmaker, has estimated that decarbonising its facilities on the continent in line with the EU’s drive to eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will cost as much as €40bn.

But given that SSAB accounts for 10pc of Sweden’s CO₂ emissions and 7pc of Finland’s, the steel giant’s green agenda is very important for the climate. What is more, SSAB’s strategy alone has more capital behind it than the UK’s entire green hydrogen policy strategy. Government money will always matter, but real investment is already starting to flow from big industrial companies.

SSAB is already making progress. Hybrit, a Swedish consortium owned by SSAB, state-owned utility Vattenfall and miner LKAB, recently sold the world’s first fossil-free steel made by substituting green hydrogen for dirty coal. And in the Swedish city of Lulea, the Hybrit plant burns green hydrogen to remove oxygen from iron ore, resulting in fossil-free sponge iron briquettes. These are shipped to SSAB’s plant in Oxelosund, south of Stockholm, where they are turned into steel plates. In October, Volvo unveiled the first vehicle made with green steel: an eight-ton electric dump truck.

SSAB has also announced a partnership with Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz to introduce fossil fuel-free steel into its vehicle production, with prototype body shells planned for next year. Mercedes-Benz has stated its intention to have a carbon-neutral vehicle fleet by 2039, a full 11 years earlier than required by EU legislation. Refuelling passenger cars with hydrogen will probably never happen, but you can bet that the gas will play a key role in reducing the carbon intensity of car manufacturing.

Where companies lead, governments will follow, which—happily for hydrogen—is no laughing matter.

Mark Selby is chief technology officer for fuel cell technology firm Ceres Power.

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Author: Mark Selby