Green hydrogen will account for 55pc of clean hydrogen supply by 2030, rising to 65pc in 2050, according to the latest scenarios modelled by oil major BP.

Strong policy support will combine with “sharp falls” in relative costs to give green hydrogen an increasing share of production, BP says in its Energy Outlook 2022, which sets out scenarios used by the company to inform its strategy. The report was prepared before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Blue hydrogen is less expensive than green in most parts of the world at the beginning of the 2020-2050 outlook period, according to BP.  “But this cost advantage is gradually eroded over the outlook as improvements in technology and manufacturing efficiency reduce the price of both wind and solar power and electrolysers,” the report says.

65pc – Green’s share of clean hydrogen supply in 2050

Most of the remaining low-carbon hydrogen in 2050 is provided by the blue variety of the fuel, although both BP’s main scenarios also include a “small amount” of hydrogen produced from bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage by 2050.

Electrolysis for green hydrogen accounts for 20-30pc of significantly expanded global renewable power generation in 2050, according to BP.

Two scenarios show combined installed wind and solar capacity increasing “more than 15-fold” from 2019 levels by 2050, with the third scenario including a ninefold increase.

Demand

BP’s scenarios show a fourfold increase in clean hydrogen demand by 2050, although growth is modest until 2030.

“The pace of growth accelerates sharply in the 2030s and 2040s as falling costs of production and tightening carbon emission polices allow low-carbon hydrogen to compete against incumbent fuels,” BP says.

Hydrogen-based synthetic fuels and direct use of hydrogen account for around 5-15pc of the total final energy used by the transport sector in 2050 in the two main scenarios.

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Author: Stuart Penson