Scotland has the potential to generate a significant amount of green hydrogen that would help it achieve its own net-zero target and allow for volumes to be sent to the rest of the UK and Europe, according to trade association Scottish Renewables (SR).

A paper by the body estimates that, by 2045, Scotland could have up to 37GW of renewable generation—mostly offshore wind—producing 126TWh/yr of green hydrogen.

The UK National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios forecast that at least 190TWh/yr of green hydrogen production is needed for the UK under all its net-zero scenarios, but some of this would be met by non-Scottish UK production.

126TWh/yr – Green hydrogen Scotland could produce by 2045

“Scotland has an abundance of renewable onshore and offshore wind resource that can be harnessed to produce green hydrogen and supply both Scotland and the rest of the UK,” says the report.

Scotland is home to more than 62pc of the UK’s territorial waters—some 462,000 km²—with this area representing 25pc of Europe’s offshore wind resource.

Policy imperatives

The Scottish government should conduct a review with industry to research and identify funding priorities to kickstart the hydrogen economy in Scotland, according to the policy position statement by the body.

“Scotland needs to move quickly to capture the extensive economic benefits. Other nations across Europe and globally have already published hydrogen strategies and have made significant policy and fiscal commitments to developing a hydrogen economy,” says the paper.

“Early investment in skills and supply chain and growth of an indigenous market are critical to creating and securing between 70,000 to 310,000 Scottish jobs.”

Other necessary policy measure include the early identification of potential hydrogen demand clusters; the development of a support mechanism that incentivises investment in both the supply and demand side of the clusters; and the development of flexible funding programmes covering each part of the hydrogen value chain with ring-fenced support for green hydrogen production.

Government targets

The UK and Scottish governments have both made commitments to produce 5GW of hydrogen by 2030, without specifying whether this production will be blue or green. Scotland should set a separate 3GW green hydrogen target, and the UK government should introduce separate funding pots for green hydrogen, according to SR. The bulk of announced UK hydrogen projects are blue.

In a separate report, the Scottish government forecast a £25bn ($34bn) contribution to Scotland’s economy by 2045 if Scotland adopted the most ambitious scenario detailed under its hydrogen strategy.

A government-commissioned analysis suggests the levelised cost of hydrogen could fall to £2/kg by 2030, at which level exports to Europe would likely be competitive with production from other parts of the world.

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Author: Tom Young