Hydrogen technologies will require $133bn/yr of investment globally before 2030 if the world is to remain on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C this century, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

At the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow last year, 196 countries agreed to try to keep the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C this century alive.

This will require huge investment before 2030 to avoid locking the world intro a trajectory of high emissions, according to the World Energy Transitions Outlook, published by Irena this week.

Hydrogen accounts for c.3pc of the $3tn/yr that needs to be invested in the global energy complex before 2030, the report says, noting that—if made—these investments will yield a cumulative payback of at least $61tn by 2050.

$3tn/yr – Energy complex investments needed under scenario

Under a scenario where global warming is limited to 1.5°C, hydrogen and its derivatives will contribute 10pc of total emissions reductions by 2050—some 3.7gt/yr of CO₂. Green and blue hydrogen production grows from current “negligible” levels to 154 mn t/yr by 2030 and 614 mn t/yr by 2050. And the cumulative installed capacity of green hydrogen electrolysers grows to some 350GW by 2030.

Multiple roles

Hydrogen can also play an important role in balancing a heavily electrified grid by absorbing short-term variations and offering long-term energy storage under the scenario.

“In the 1.5°C scenario, the production of a very large volume of hydrogen from renewable power in combination with hydrogen storage can help provide long-term seasonal flexibility from 2030 onwards and would provide an estimated storage capacity of 2,000TWh by 2050,” says the report.

Irena goes on to list policies needed to promote the use of hydrogen and its derivatives, including the continued development of hydrogen strategies that define the level of ambition across end-use sectors; the establishment of sectoral priorities for use of the fuel; certification systems; industrial policies to maintain competitiveness; incentivising demand for low-carbon commodities such as green steel; and the promotion of hydrogen-based production in industry through pilot projects.

Under the 1.5°C scenario, global hydrogen trade becomes responsible for meeting almost a quarter of global energy demand by 2050. Around half of this trade would be via pipelines and half via ammonia shipping. Around 70pc of the ammonia traded is used as feedstock and fuel rather than reconverted to hydrogen.

But these developments will be possible only if producers are able to reduce the cost of hydrogen production and transport to ‘well below’ $1/kg, Irena says.

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Author: Tom Young