While FIDs for low-carbon hydrogen projects remain elusive, a majority of projects in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific are expected to be commissioned by mid-decade, according to project data from Global Energy Infrastructure (GEI).

Of the 526 planned or proposed European projects in the GEI database, 299 are due to start up by 2025. That year is also expected to see the highest number of European hydrogen projects become operational, with 96 announcing startup for then.

In Asia Pacific, 117 projects are planned or proposed to begin operations by 2025, while in North America the figure is 91. The proportion of projects in the pipeline due to start by 2025 is similar across each region, at around 54pc for both Asia Pacific and North America, and 56pc for Europe.

96 – Projects in European pipeline due to start in 2025

Many projects have vague startup timelines. While just under a fifth of planned or proposed European projects have not disclosed an expected commissioning date, in Asia Pacific and North America this figure jumps to nearly 30pc.

Interim climate targets and policy support could be driving these timelines for mid-decade commissioning.

The EU has set a target to produce 10mn t of hydrogen by 2030 as part of its RepowerEU plan, while the UK targets 1GW of electrolytic hydrogen in operation or under construction by 2025. Meanwhile, in the US, the Inflation Reduction Act—widely considered to have spurred new hope for hydrogen development—will provide tax credits for projects constructed prior to 2033.

China has set a particularly aggressive interim target in its national hydrogen strategy for 100,000-200,000t/yr of green hydrogen production by 2025. GEI data estimates the country’s current operational green hydrogen capacity is less than 250MW, requiring a sharp ramp-up in projects coming online.

More than 5.3GW of China’s announced green hydrogen production capacity is in the pipeline for development in 2022-25. The majority of this capacity—5GW—will come from Chinese developer Beijing Jingneng’s Inner Mongolia project. While the project was announced in 2020, with operations due in 2021, commissioning has since been pushed back to 2023.

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Author: Polly Martin