California’s ability to develop enough solar power capacity to produce green hydrogen at scale is highly uncertain and the state should instead initially focus on blue production methods to accelerate the transition, according to the state government’s Air Resources Board (ARB).

Producing enough green hydrogen to meet the state’s targets for hydrogen demand would require about 10GW of additional solar capacity, on top of that needed for electrification, the ARB says this week in its latest scoping plan to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2045.

“There is a high degree of uncertainty around the availability of solar to support both electrification of existing sectors and the production of hydrogen through electrolysis,” the ARB says.

“Steam methane reformation paired with CCS can thus ensure a rapid transition to hydrogen and increase hydrogen availability until such time that electrolysis with renewables can meet the ongoing need, assuming there is also sufficient water supply.”

“There is a high degree of uncertainty around the availability of solar to support both electrification of existing sectors and the production of hydrogen through electrolysis” ARB

The transition in California, the world’s fifth-largest economy, will require about 1,700 times its current hydrogen supply, while solar and wind capacity will need to be increased fourfold by 2045, according to the ARB.

“This transition will not happen overnight. It will take time and planning to ensure a smooth transition of existing energy infrastructure and deployment of new clean technology,” it says.

Earlier this year, state governor Gavin Newsom set out his California Climate Commitment with a total budget of $54.1bn, including $2.1bn for clean energy investments, such as long-duration storage, offshore wind, green hydrogen and industrial decarbonisation.

The ARB’s scoping plan calls for 25pc of oceangoing vessels to use hydrogen fuel-cell electric technology by 2045, with a target of 20pc of aviation fuel demand to be met by electricity or hydrogen fuels by that year.

Hydrogen should be used for 25pc of process heat by 2035 in the chemicals, paper and pulp sector, rising to 100pc by 2045.

Hydrogen blending into the state’s natural gas grid should be ramped up to 20pc between 2030 and 2040, and dedicated hydrogen pipelines should be built to serve certain industrial clusters in the 2030s, the ARB adds.

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Author: Stuart Penson