The EU must develop green and blue hydrogen resources if it is to support the optimal development of a hydrogen value chain, according to Hydrogen4EU, a research body backed by firms in the oil and gas industry.

Under two scenarios outlined by Hydrogen4EU, European production of both types of hydrogen must reach c.15mn t/yr by 2030.

Without both green and blue hydrogen production, the bloc risks not being able to meet the projected demand from sectors looking to decarbonise—principally transport, industry and some heating.

“The findings underscore the value of diversity in hydrogen production routes,” says the report. The sectoral demand assumptions are based on data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre’s Potencia central scenario, rather than the EU targets of 10mn t/yr of imports and 10mn t/yr of domestic production.

Dual scenarios

The report outlines two scenarios: the Technology Diversification route and the Renewable Push route.

In the Technology Diversification route, blue hydrogen production tops 10mn t/yr in 2030 and reaches c.34mn t/yr in 2040. Significant green hydrogen production does not develop until 2040, when it reaches 10mn t/yr, growing to over 40mn t/yr by 2050.

“The findings underscore the value of diversity in hydrogen production routes” Hydrogen4EU

In the Renewable Push route, characterised by more ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment, a faster deployment of green hydrogen is anticipated: production reaches 10mn t/yr in 2030 and tops 65mn t/yr by 2040. Blue hydrogen also features in that pathway but peaks at 18mn t/yr by 2040.

“It complements renewable hydrogen to establish the hydrogen economy in the first half of the outlook period,” says the report, noting that: “Renewable hydrogen… is the main source of hydrogen supply in the long term across all scenarios.”

Offshore wind is seen as the primary renewable source for green hydrogen production under both scenarios—it accounts for more than 50pc of production in each.

Import strategy

The acceleration of hydrogen’s uptake in the 2030s and 2040s is complemented by imports.

In the Technology Diversification pathway, imports from North Africa, the Middle East and various smaller exporters reach 15mn t/yr in 2040 and nearly 25mn t/yr in 2050, meeting up to a quarter of total European demand. In the Renewable Push pathway, imports reach 9mn t/yr in 2040 and 19mn t/yr by 2050.

Hydrogen imports do not reach significant volumes until the late 2020s in either pathway.

“The results are well aligned with the renewed strategies of European stakeholders to rely on international hydrogen trade and to secure early imports of hydrogen and hydrogen-related molecules,” says the report.

“Imported hydrogen is critical to diversify supply sources, reduce the cost of hydrogen supply and achieve optimal resource utilisation,” The report adds

The EU’s current strategy is largely focused on green hydrogen. The 20mn t/yr target specifies ‘renewable hydrogen’, although the Commission has not explicitly ruled out the blue variety.

Hydrogen4EU is a cross-sectoral research body established by several firms including oil and gas companies Chevron, Eni and Wintershall Dea.

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Author: Tom Young