Prices for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysers are likely to stay high in 2023 amid tight supply of platinum group metals, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.

Volatility in key metals for PEM and alkaline electrolysers has already caused respective price rises of 30pc and 21pc between 2020 and 2022.

Platinum and iridium—used in catalyst coated membranes and crucial for PEM electrolysers—have seen particular volatility between January 2021 and the start of 2023. Rystad warns that prices for these metals are likely to increase over the coming year due to an approaching supply crunch.

212GW – Electrolyser capacity estimated by 2030

South Africa accounts for 83pc of global iridium supply and 70pc of platinum, but is expected to see continued power outages from its fleet of aging coal-fired power stations, threatening the rate of metal production.

Prices for nickel—a key raw material for alkaline electrolyser catalysts and used in stainless steel production—have increased by an average of 30pc over the past year, with a spike in June. While supply is not as concentrated in one country as with platinum and iridium, China and Russia are both major nickel producers, with lockdowns in the former and sanctions against the latter contributing to higher prices.

However, Rystad estimates that nickel prices will fall towards $25,000/t in 2023 as China relaxes its zero-Covid policies and Indonesia ramps up supply.

Innovation

Rystad estimates that electrolyser capacity could double this year, with 212GW likely to come online by 2030—putting extra pressure on the industry to solve the problem of metals supply, with a focus on rare platinum and iridium.

The consultancy notes that by reducing the presence of precious metals, increasing electrolyser efficiency, increasing production volumes, automating manufacturing processes and leveraging policy support such as the EU’s Important Projects of Common European Interest scheme, electrolyser price inflation could fall by 10–15pc up to 2027.

The industry is exploring options for recycling platinum group metals, already a common practice for catalytic converter manufacturers, and developing new electrolyser designs. In 2022, researchers at the Netherlands’ TNO announced they had filed a patent for a design that used 200-times less iridium than current PEM electrolysers.

Rystad calculates that in order to prevent constraints to PEM electrolyser deployment due to platinum and iridium supply, future technologies must reduce the usage of these metals by 70–80pc. This will also contribute to significant cost cuts associated with catalyst-coated membranes.

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Author: Polly Martin