Synthetic fuels derived from hydrogen could account for up to 30pc of jet fuel by 2050, rising from only 1–2pc in 2035, according to new analysis by BP.

Improvements in technology and increasing production capacity cause the relative cost of synthetic jet fuel to fall, enabling it to take a market share of 10–30pc in 2050, according to the ‘Accelerated’ and ‘Net Zero’ scenarios in an update of BP’s Energy Outlook report. Constraints on the scaling-up of second-generation biojet also help to drive synthetic fuel growth in aviation, BP says.

The report models three scenarios to 2050: ‘New Momentum’ is based on the current trajectory of the energy industry, while the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios are based on actions necessary to cut global CO₂ emissions by 75pc and 95pc respectively by 2050.

10–30pc – Possible market share by 2050

Future hydrogen demand in industry, excluding its use as a feedstock in sectors such as fertiliser production, is dominated by iron and steel, where it is used both as an energy source and as a reducing agent.

This trend is clearest in the New Momentum scenario, where more than 75pc of industrial hydrogen demand is in iron and steel. In Accelerated and Net Zero, the share is around 40pc, with the other 60pc used to provide high-temperature heat in other sectors, such as petrochemicals, glass, ceramics and cement.

Demand for feedstock hydrogen varies across scenarios. In New Momentum, demand increases by 35pc between 2019 and 2050, driven by growth in fertiliser use and methanol demand for traditional uses. Demand from refining declines slightly as refinery output falls.

Elsewhere, BP’s scenarios show “only a limited” role for hydrogen in the heating of buildings.

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Author: Stuart Penson