Africa is increasingly gaining ground as a major hydrogen production centre, with strong potential for exports to Europe. But while governments and developers claim that green hydrogen will boost African economies and facilitate a just energy transition—where countries most at risk of climate change benefit from the solutions—critics warn this drive for African hydrogen could ultimately represent a new version of energy colonialism.

Africa’s total announced electrolyser pipeline capacity has reached 114GW, 70GW of which is in the sub-Saharan region, according to consultancy Rystad Energy. Mauritania covers 50pc of this announced capacity, followed by South Africa and Namibia. While FID has been taken on only 13MW to date, “the continent’s access to land, low labour costs and renewable power potential has been attracting attention from further afield”, says Rystad, noting Germany has already signed offtake deals with Namibia and South Africa in addition to opening its H2Global import scheme.

70GW – Announced green hydrogen production capacity in sub-Saharan Africa

“The global green hydrogen economy is beginning to take shape, with Africa and Europe becoming a dynamo of production and use,” says Rajeev Pandey, clean technology analyst at Rystad. “Africa’s unparalleled mineral reserves are critical for electrolyser production, and the region’s fantastic renewable potential combined with Europe’s prodigious production and import targets will not just alter energy flows, they will create them anew.”

Hydrogen could contribute significant sums toward African countries’ GDP. UAE state-affiliated developer Masdar and consultancy McKinsey estimate Africa could capture as much as 10pc of the global green hydrogen market by 2050, which would create 3.7mn jobs and add up to $120bn to the continent’s GDP. The Namibian government anticipates hydrogen could contribute up to $6bn toward GDP by 2030. And the Africa Green Hydrogen Alliance—a group of six African countries looking to promote regional development of the fuel—anticipates that reaching 30–60mn t/yr of production capacity, much of it targeted towards export, could add $66–126bn to the GDP of member countries in 2050.

However, a recent report by research and campaigning group Corporate Europe Observatory argues that Europe’s, and in particular Germany’s, support for export-oriented projects in the Global South “follows centuries-old colonial patterns, where resources like land and water are appropriated for German industry while negative impacts like ecological damage and energy scarcity are conveniently outsourced”. In addition to land and water use conflicts, megaprojects could also draw renewable electricity away from the grid in countries that already face severe energy shortages.

“There is a danger that the energy transition in hydrogen export countries will be slowed down as green electricity is used to produce hydrogen exports, while more fossil fuels are burned to cover local needs,” the report warns.

Europe’s hydrogen diplomacy also risks legitimising and benefitting authoritarian regimes while stoking interregional conflicts, the report says. It notes that Saudi Arabia’s Neom city—set to include a 2GW green hydrogen project supplied by German firm Thyssenkrupp—is already accused of human rights violations, while Morocco’s renewables potential is mostly sited in occupied territories in the disputed Western Sahara region.

The report also points to developments tied to civic harm, such as FFI’s proposal for hydrogen production using power from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s controversial Grand Inga hydroelectric dam—expected to displace tens of thousands of people. The Germany-backed Hyphen project in Namibia faces similar criticism over its opacity. “Regional politicians feel excluded from the process, and a watchdog has sounded alarm bells over the non-transparent land tender process, the 40-year concession for the project, and dodgy investors in the consortium,” the report says.

---

Author: Polly Martin