The energy transition is not on track to meet net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C, warns the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) in a preview of its World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023 report. In addition to renewable energy capacity, electric vehicle rollout and CCS, hydrogen is highlighted as a sector that has significant gaps between current trends and the scale of development needed for a net-zero energy system.

Irena expects electricity to be the main energy carrier in its 1.5°C scenario, accounting for more than half of final energy consumption, while hydrogen and its derivatives account for 14pc.

“We simply cannot continue with incremental changes if we are to achieve the necessary reductions in carbon emissions to meet climate goals” La Camera, Irena

Irena data indicates that around 700,000t/yr of low-carbon hydrogen is being produced—but this will need to scale up to 21.4mn t/yr by 2030 and 518mn t/yr by 2050 to meet net zero, requiring 233GW and 5.7TW of electrolyser capacity by those years, respectively.

Similarly, while low-carbon hydrogen investment is around $1.1bn/yr at present, the sector will need $80bn/yr by 2030 and $170bn/yr by 2050.

“There is no time for a new energy system to evolve gradually over more than a century—as was the case for the fossil fuel-based system. We simply cannot continue with incremental changes if we are to achieve the necessary reductions in carbon emissions to meet climate goals,” says Irena director-general Francesco La Camera.

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Author: Polly Martin