Chinese demand for hydrogen as an energy carrier is poised for rapid growth through 2050 as supportive policies drive use for applications such as industrial heat and the production of alternative fuels, according to assurance and risk management company DNV.

Demand for energy purposes will transition from “nearly non-existent” levels at present to an estimated 43mt/yr by 2050, DNV said in a report titled Energy Transition Outlook China.

Energy-related demand will overtake the country’s use of hydrogen as an industrial feedstock by the 2040s. Feedstock demand is projected to grow by 20% by 2050.

The initial significant uptake of hydrogen as an energy carrier is expected in the industrial heat and alternative fuel sector. Close to 5mt/yr will be used for the provision of industrial heat in ten years’ time, while by then about 3mt/yr will be used to provide alternative fuels based on hydrogen.

Subsequently, the direct utilisation of hydrogen is anticipated to gain traction in long-distance trucking and aviation, with the transition occurring progressively from the late 2030s to the 2040s. About 0.3mt/yr will be used in China's road sector in ten years’ time, despite China’s relentless push into battery-electric vehicles.

Government strategy for the period 2021–35 includes a goal to have about 50,000 fuel-cell vehicles on the road and more than 400 hydrogen refuelling stations.

About a third of energy-related hydrogen demand will be from the production of ammonia and synthetic fuels for the maritime and aviation sectors.

Solar power

China’s production of low-carbon hydrogen is expected to be dominated by electrolysis powered by solar PV and, to a lesser extent, onshore wind. “Towards mid-century, hydrogen production via electrolysis will undergo tremendous growth in China,” DNV said.

Electrolysis-based production aimed at supplying hydrogen for energy will be at 30mt/yr in 2050. Low-carbon hydrogen also makes inroads in hydrogen use for feedstock. By 2050, 80% of both hydrogen for feedstock and hydrogen for energy will be based on low-carbon hydrogen.

“Intense policy focus and technological innovation is transforming China into a green energy powerhouse” Eriksen, DNV

By the end of 2023, China's electrolyser capacity had reached 1.2GW, constituting half of the global capacity, according to DNV.

Future growth of electrolytic hydrogen production will draw on a massive renewable power generation sector. China already has the world’s largest fleets of solar and wind power plants.

New solar installations in 2023 alone are expected to provide one-and-a-half times the total installed capacity of solar power in the US, DNV said. “Renewable generation from solar PV will continue increasing and account for 38% of all electricity produced in China in 2050,” it added.

“Intense policy focus and technological innovation is transforming China into a green energy powerhouse” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV.

Global player

DNV highlighted China’s success as an exporter of electrolyser technology. “Beyond its borders, China is solidifying its dominance in electrolyser deployment, with more than 40% of global electrolysis projects reaching the final FID originating from the country,” it said.

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Author: Stuart Penson