Momentum is building behind Jordan’s ambitions to develop its green hydrogen sector. Prospective investors are circling, despite the wider uncertainty gripping the industry, and multinational institutions are helping the government to craft the physical infrastructure and regulatory backdrop required to move projects beyond the drawing board.

Jordan was an early convert to renewables by dint of its lack of domestic fossil-fuel resources, with a rapid buildout in the 2010s giving solar and wind a roughly 28% share in national generation capacity. Its proximity to Europe offers an opportunity to export green hydrogen, with the Red Sea port of Aqaba envisaged as the industry’s main hub.

Amman’s industry roadmap envisages more than 80% of the green hydrogen produced this decade being exported, primarily as ammonia

A recently promulgated National Hydrogen Strategy calls for production to reach 600,000t/yr by the end of the decade, 1.5mt/yr by 2040 and 3.4mt/yr by mid-century.

The trickle of preliminary agreements with developers to assess potential projects started with Australia’s Fortescue Future Industries in November 2021 and accelerated markedly in 2023 before slowing this year in line with wider industry sentiment.

Chinese interest

Nonetheless, recent signature on the first two deals with prospective Chinese investors signals continued investor interest. In September, Jordan’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Beijing-affiliated China Three Gorges International—which gained a foothold in the kingdom’s renewables sector through the acquisition of Dubai-based Alcazar Energy three years previously—to explore a 200,000t/yr green ammonia scheme.

Two months later, China's HDsolar signed a similar deal envisaging producing 400,000t/yr of green ammonia, taking to 14 the number of such MOUs in place at the end of November.

Speaking following the latter agreement, energy minister Saleh Kharabsheh claimed eight of the preliminary studies had been submitted to the authorities and that another three were nearing completion. The proposed projects imply investment of $28b by 2030.

The most-advanced of the proposed schemes comprises a 100,000–300,000t/yr ammonia plant planned by Jordan Green Ammonia, a joint venture of Poland’s Hynfra and the UAE’s Fidelity Group, on which an MOU was inked in October 2023. The team announced submission of their preliminary feasibility in May and in September signed agreements with the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority and the Aqaba Development Corporation granting land in the area for the conduct of detailed studies, with a view to commencing phased startup in 2029. The scheme would require the installation of around 670MW of renewable power, with costs estimated at around $1.6b.

14 – Project MOUs

For its part, Amman is working with various multinational institutions to prepare the ground. In July, the EU-affiliated European Bank for Reconstruction and Development selected Austrian engineering consultancy ILF to advise the Jordanian authorities on developing the common-use infrastructure required at the Aqaba Special Economic Zone.

The US Agency for International Development was involved in preparing the National Hydrogen Strategy, while the World Bank is assisting with the development of supportive legislation.

Power reforms

In early November, the cabinet approved a draft new General Electricity Law, enshrining the rights of private investors to install, own and operate power distribution systems independent of the national grid—a critical underpinning for prospective green hydrogen projects.

Amman’s industry roadmap envisages more than 80% of the green hydrogen produced this decade being exported, primarily as ammonia, falling to two-thirds by 2040 and remaining at around that level. The overwhelming focus of such projects across Africa and the Middle East on servicing overseas needs has provoked considerable controversy, especially with regards to the region’s poorer nations.

Jordan attracts particular attention in light of its acute water stress and heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels to meet local energy needs.

Continued uncertainty around the evolution of international markets for the fuel could encourage a sharper near-term focus on its potential domestic use in emissions and import reduction, notably in the kingdom’s crucial fertiliser sector—where the substitution of grey hydrogen feedstock shipped in from abroad with a clean, locally sourced alternative would both boost the public finances and insulate the industry from impending European carbon border taxes.

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Author: Clare Dunkley