The Azerbaijani Presidency of the COP29 climate talks will prioritise hydrogen and aim to include measures in its final outcome declaration designed to unlock the potential of a global market for the fuel.

The COP29 talks are set to finalise outstanding elements of the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global temperatures “well below” 2C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times—and will have a particular focus on mobilising climate finance.

Hydrogen has come to the fore as a decarbonisation technology only in recent years, and therefore featured only peripherally in the Paris Agreement and subsequent COP declarations, which emerge at the end of every set of talks.

“The outcome declaration will unlock the potential of a global market for clean hydrogen” COP29 Presidency

The COP26 agreement did include a 'hydrogen breakthrough' goal to ensure affordable low-carbon hydrogen is globally available by 2030, but it offered little detail on how this might be achieved.

The COP29 Presidency aims to build on that breakthrough goal by launching a set of actions that will set the framework for the development of a global hydrogen economy.

“The outcome declaration will unlock the potential of a global market for clean hydrogen and its derivatives with guiding principles and priorities, to address regulatory, technological, financing, and standardisation barriers,” said an action agenda proposed by the Presidency.

It notes there are multiple regulatory, technological and financial barriers to the development of hydrogen markets and aims to overcome these barriers by encouraging nations to establish targets, incentives, mandates, public procurement initiatives and public-private partnerships.

“Where appropriate, [countries] will integrate hydrogen into national climate and energy plans,” said the COP Presidency’s proposal.

These decarbonisation plans for individual countries—known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—are due to be updated by 2025.

Only 40 of the 177 NDCs updated since 2020 mention hydrogen, and the Presidency hopes to grow this number in the forthcoming round of updates.

It is also committed to accelerating global standards and the mutual recognition of certification schemes for hydrogen—a key factor in enabling scale-up of the sector.

Devil in the detail

Finalising these standards at an international level under the auspices of the UN is particularly vital in the case of blue hydrogen, according to a letter to the Presidency signed by industry players, including project developer Fortescue and electrolyser manufacturer Ceres.

“Lack of attention to these details can result in investment and deployment decisions being made that would lock in high emission levels for a 20–25-year plant life,” said the letter.

It noted that low upstream methane emissions and reliable geological carbon storage are key to ensuring that blue hydrogen projects are of benefit to the climate.

The letter recommends that lifecycle assessments for the upstream methane emissions of blue hydrogen projects should use regional-level estimates based on emissions data measured by the UN Environment Programme’s International Methane Observatory.

Such a step would “cascade into national and state standards around the world”, the letter said.

Existing efforts

EU and US policymakers are already grappling with this issue. In its latest proposal on measuring the upstream emissions of blue hydrogen projects, the EU proposes to measure the methane emissions of blue hydrogen projects using bespoke, project-specific emission values once the region’s methane emissions come into force—as recommended by the letter to the Presidency.

But the US Treasury Department's proposed 45V guidance sets a fixed methane leakage rate of 0.9% for upstream emissions. The guidance also offers the possibility of project developers purchasing fugitive methane offsets to achieve compliance.

40 – Countries that already mention hydrogen in their NDCs to the Paris Agreement

It is unclear whether the guidance—or indeed the tax credit itself—will survive the transition to President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration.

US and EU rules on the geological storage of carbon are more aligned and should set the template for regulations used in other parts of the world, the letter continued.

A high-level roundtable on hydrogen aimed at achieving agreement on a hydrogen declaration will take place at the COP talks on 15 November.

Uncertain future

Trump has promised to remove the US from the Paris Agreement on taking office in January. President Biden restored US participation in the accord after Trump withdrew from it during his first term.

The Paris Agreement will remain binding for other nations—although observers say a second US exit will hinder the decarbonisation efforts of other major polluters, such as China.

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Author: Tom Young