Scandinavia’s efforts to position itself as a key supplier of green hydrogen to German industry has suffered a further setback, with the delay of a major Danish export pipeline project by at least three years.

Updated schedules published by Danish energy system operator Energinet imply commissioning of the onshore “hydrogen backbone” interconnector project in 2032, compared with a previous target of 2028. However, the Danish government said it will work to support the possible commissioning of the pipeline’s first stage in 2031.

“We are working on measures to make Energinet’s timeline more robust and to limit the delay as much as possible” Aagaard, Danish energy minister

“The timeline that Energinet has presented is far from ideal,” said Lars Aagaard, Danish energy minister. “Therefore, we are working on measures to make Energinet’s timeline more robust and to limit the delay as much as possible.”

Last year, Germany and Denmark signed a joint declaration of intent to build the pipeline, which would take Danish green hydrogen into northern Germany.

Denmark aims to produce 4–6GW of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030, which would allow it to export excess volumes to Germany’s “large and increasing demand” for the fuel, according to the joint declaration.

The interconnector’s delay comes after Norwegian state-owned energy firm Equinor and oil major Shell recently withdrew from a project to study the viability of a pipeline to take blue hydrogen produced in Norway to Germany. Both firms cited a lack of demand for their decisions.

Demand potential

The fundamental case for the Danish pipeline project looks more robust. Energinet’s discussions with the market earlier this year indicated a potential demand for hydrogen for transport totalling 4.9GW in 2032, potentially increasing to 6.9GW in 2050.

However, there is uncertainty over the timing of green hydrogen plants interested in booking capacity on the pipeline. Based on the current maturity of those projects, immediate demand for pipeline capacity was expected to be only around 0.8GW in 2031, Energinet said. Demand for a further 1.3GW was potentially possible, but that was linked to projects dependent on offshore wind concessions in the North Sea, which have yet to be awarded.

The Danish government stressed its continued backing for the pipeline project, despite the delay. “We are still very positive about the project,” said Aagaard. “The feedback from the market is great news. We are still ready to bring state co-financing to the table if the industry commits to booking capacity in the pipeline.”

The Danish government is keen to ensure “an efficient interaction between the great amounts of renewable electricity from the ongoing offshore wind tenders, the production of green hydrogen and the German demand”, he added.

Struggling for scale

Speaking at the recent World Hydrogen Congress in Copenhagen, Aagaard backed hydrogen as a “cornerstone” of the transition. “From a technical point of view, [hydrogen] is just fantastic,” he said, highlighting  the energy vector’s potential to “balance enormous amounts of green electrons with the demand side”.

However, he warned of the challenges facing the sector as it tries to scale up. “A vision is very nice. but it must be grounded in reality ,” he told the conference. “We must face the facts, and the fact is that we are struggling. We are not yet really reaching the scale we need.”

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Author: Stuart Penson