Scotland is pushing ahead with a green hydrogen export strategy aimed at supplying the German market, initially by ship and ultimately via a planned pipeline linking the two countries.

The Scottish government is targeting 5GW of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030 and 25GW by 2045, leveraging the country’s offshore wind resources and using excess power that would otherwise be curtailed.

About 3.3mt/yr of renewable hydrogen could be produced in Scotland by 2045, of which some 2.5mt/yr could be exported, according to a government export scenario.

“Scotland is ideally positioned as a key partner in meeting the hydrogen needs of Germany and the wider EU” Gee, Net Zero Technology Centre

“Scotland is ideally positioned as a key partner in meeting the hydrogen needs of Germany and the wider EU,” said Darren Gee, head of government funded projects at the Net Zero Technology Centre (NZTC), a Scottish non-profit organisation tasked with supporting the government’s energy transition plans.

On a trade visit to Germany in January, Scottish energy secretary Gillian Martin said transporting hydrogen by ship was among the options, while a pipeline between the two countries is being developed.

The proposed £2.7b Hydrogen Backbone Link (HBL) would stretch from Scotland’s east coast to Emden in northwest Germany and could potentially meet up to 10% of Europe’s hydrogen demand by the mid-2030s.

Phase two of the project is underway, with work in progress to determine the final technical concept and address emerging commercial and regulatory challenges, Gee told Hydrogen Economist.

“The technical scope includes finalising potential export and import connection points, optimising pipeline routes and assessing how these permutations would affect storage and compression requirements,” he added. “There are opportunities to provide connectivity to Eire, major offtakers in England and provide a mid-sea connection to a key German pipeline,” he continued.

Work is also underway to develop the commercial aspects of the scope, engaging with transmission system operators and regulatory bodies in the Netherlands and Germany as well as completing a Projects of Common Interest application with the EU to make the pipeline a reality, Gee said.

Competitive market

Hydrogen transport via pipeline remains the most cost competitive route for Scotland’s exports.

The cost of hydrogen exported by pipeline from Scotland to Germany is estimated at €7.5/kg ($7.74kg) in 2030, with exports by ship at €9–11/kg, depending on delivery vector such as exporting as ammonia or liquid hydrogen, according to Emma Woodward, lead Europe analyst at consultancy Aurora Energy Research.

On the other hand, if a hydrogen import/export market develops across Europe, Scottish exports will face stiff competition from the Nordic countries and Iberia, where Aurora’s analysis shows production and delivery costs will be lower still, Woodward said.

“There are also technical issues, and the feasibility and scalability of export technologies on this scale has not yet really been seen,” she added. The Scottish export proposal also focuses on the potential for hydrogen to be produced from power that would otherwise be curtailed because of a current bottleneck in transmission capacity between Scotland and demand centres in England.

“However, transmission constraints are a present-day issue,” she said. Aurora’s analysis shows that, even in a scenario with a partial delay of transmission buildout, total curtailed power will peak at around 18GW in 2032 before decreasing to present-day levels by 2035.

“So the window of opportunity for taking advantage may be quite small,” she said.

Production challenge

Scotland’s green hydrogen production is at an early stage, with many projects being small and based on local demand, coupled with local generation. To meet the demands of the HBL, the NZTC recommended the creation of energy hubs producing around 900,000t/yr.

Small-scale projects already underway include the Aberdeen Hydrogen Hub, being developed by a joint venture between BP and Aberdeen City Council.

FID on the project was announced in 2024, with first production scheduled for 2026, aimed at the truck and bus market.

€7.5/kg – Cost of pipeline exports

Phase two could see production scaled up to supply more than 3t/d of green hydrogen for road, rail, freight and marine transport by 2030, and phase three could scale up further to supply hydrogen for heat in buildings and potentially export.

This expansion would be enabled by the expected increased availability of local renewable power sources, including developments that emerge from the ScotWind offshore wind initiative, the company said.

Meanwhile, RWE’s proposed 200MW Grangemouth green hydrogen project will produce hydrogen for a local industrial offtaker with no plans for export, a spokesperson told Hydrogen Economist.

The company is working on other projects for the domestic UK market and expects the hydrogen economy to grow throughout the 2030s and beyond. 

“As domestic demand is met, there may be opportunities for low-carbon hydrogen produced in the UK to be exported to countries like Germany where there is clear demand,” the RWE spokesperson said.

---

Author: Beatrice Bedeschi