In the UK today there are many factories that make our cement, glass and whisky that will need hydrogen to replace natural gas. Yet some forecasts suggest industrial demand will be limited as they ‘could’ electrify. Those projections miss what is happening on the ground, and that gap could cost us jobs, competitiveness and progress towards net zero. It also means households risk higher bills as industry struggles with limited options, while the UK forfeits a chance to anchor thousands of clean-energy jobs in our industrial heartlands.

Too often, modelling takes a neat, top-down view of industry, assuming that whole sectors are identical and leading to the conclusion that they can simply electrify. Real life is more complex – something we have been highlighting to the government, as it looks to refresh the Hydrogen Strategy this year. Decisions are made on a site-by-site basis, shaped by geography, infrastructure and technical constraints. Averages do not tell the full story, and as a result, forecasts risk underestimating the role hydrogen will play in keeping the UK’s industries alive and clean.

Take cement: at Ribblesdale in Lancashire, Heidelberg Materials proved it could fire a kiln on a net zero fuel mix including hydrogen, a 1,600C process for which electrification simply is not a viable option.

“Government should let the market show what is needed and provide a framework that meets the on-the-ground reality” Ryan, Hydrogen UK

It is a similar story in St Helens, where Pilkington Glass has successfully demonstrated the use of hydrogen in its float process, one that requires a stable supply of energy to achieve extremely high temperature in a footprint that cannot be met by electrification.

In paper, another sector that is expected to electrify, Kimberly-Clark is showing that hydrogen can be used to reduce emissions from its Andrex and Kleenex brand plant sites in Barrow and across the UK as early as 2027.

Or look at food and drink: on paper, electrification looks plausible. In practice, it would mean shutting down operations for an extended period to install new equipment; an existential risk for a business with tight margins. Retrofitting hydrogen boilers, by contrast, can be done with far less disruption while maintaining familiar processes for the plant operators.

Whisky distilleries in Scotland face an even clearer choice: located in remote areas with little grid access and high heat demands, hydrogen can be the best option to cut emissions.

Glassmakers, paper mills, brickworks, refineries—the list of sectors turning to hydrogen grows longer every year. Many have already run pilots and demonstrations, proving hydrogen can cut emissions without sacrificing performance.

Resilience

Hydrogen also offers resilience. Unlike electricity, which is constrained by grid capacity, hydrogen can be stored at scale and transported. That matters for industries with fluctuating demand. Many sites cannot justify the cost and downtime associated with upgrading grid connections, and in many cases the wait for upgrades is too long. Hydrogen fuel switching lets them decarbonise sooner while maintaining reliability and product quality.

Current forecasts also tend to downplay how quickly costs can fall. Just as solar and offshore wind became far cheaper once deployment scaled, there is a pragmatic pathway to halve the cost of electrolytic hydrogen with the right policies.

Private capital

The risk is clear: the UK has more than £20b of private capital ready to invest in hydrogen projects. But if demand is underestimated and the policy framework fails to support it, that money will go abroad. Germany’s €20b national hydrogen backbone pipeline is already under construction, designed to connect its industrial clusters by the early 2030s. Denmark is using excess wind power to make hydrogen for its industries and for export. If the UK hesitates, we will not just lose investment, we will lose export markets too.

The good news is that we do not need to wait for the perfect projection. We already know where hydrogen is essential: high-temperature processes, industries with no viable electrification path, and sites where hydrogen offers the least-disruptive option. Government should act on this evidence, letting the market show them what is needed and providing a framework that meets the on-the-ground reality. That means building hydrogen infrastructure, aligning carbon pricing with industrial needs, and providing incentives and clarity so that businesses can commit.

Brett Ryan is head of policy and analysis at Hydrogen UK.

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Author: Brett Ryan